Some IPv4 address price forecasting

I spent some time playing around with forecasting second-hand IPv4 range prices the other day.

ARIN is the most liquid, so the price development is best seen there:

RIPE has a worse fit, but shows the same trend:

I’m wondering if there will be an IPv6 inflection point, where everyone that is hoarding IPv4 now decides enough is enough and wants to cash out. Perhaps we’ll find out.

The source material is from ipv4auctions.com, code-wise it is ARIMA (or “seasonal ARIMA”, SARIMAX) from statsmodels, some pandas and a bit of plotting.

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